Fire EruptingTier 2
at Ludo Regionals
decks
10
(6.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
8-10-3
overall winrate
45.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.5%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
48.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1186
· median 1190
· range 1036–1399
(10 pilots with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1163
Q3 1353
1685
10% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
40% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.7% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 41.0% | -4.5 |
| Wind Allies | 16.3% | 5 | 1-2-2 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 45.4% | -2.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Water Overlord | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Fire Erupting decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
